Remaining optimistic on emerging markets

The year 2023 turned out to be fairly pedestrian in terms of emerging markets’ performance. The asset class was weighed down by China, which recorded its third consecutive year of negative returns.

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The pandemic has accelerated certain long-term shifts in consumer behaviour, such as using more online orders for everything from clothing to food. The latest battleground appears to be groceries, but the disrupter emerged from a not-so-new technology — WeChat groups.
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Firstly, regulations are nothing new — it has always been a part of the investment equation. If we look at Hong Kong or Singapore for example, the government would introduce new regulations on the property market from time to time;
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What is your view on the tightening regulations on Chinese tech companies? What are the impacts on the companies in the holdings (Tencent, Alibaba, JD.com) and do you see it as a structural headwind for the sector or an accumulation opportunity?
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How will US-China trade relations affect companies in the portfolio in the long term? Should it be seen as a long-term headwind or could it be beneficial for Chinese companies?
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While the pandemic is still far from over, a number of key leading indicators point to a healthy and broad-based recovery in China. Industrial production, trade activity and retail sales have been strong; and in stark contrast to the lockdowns and travel restrictions in early 2020, domestic travel, tourism and the leisure sectors in China have sprung back to life.
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Given its size and influence, China remains a key investment destination despite ongoing trade disputes and diplomatic tensions with the US and Australia. With a GDP equivalent to around 70% of the United States, many global portfolios continue to feature Chinese equities.
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What will 2021 look like for China? 2021 will be a year of recovery. This is not surprising given last year’s economic downturn. If vaccines are being rolled out gradually during the year, we believe the economy will recover, especially those sectors that have been hit hard like travel.
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