Discerning value amid China’s macro noise

When China reopened at the end of 2022, domestic stocks had a V-shaped rebound, analysts raised their earnings forecasts, and companies prepared for a steep recovery in the economy. But the market’s optimism soon faded and turned into disappointment.

  • 9 mins

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As with global automotive manufacturers, several Indian automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) including Maruti Suzuki, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), Tata Motors and Eicher Motors have recently announced that the shortage of semiconductor supply has impacted their production schedules.
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Year to date, 34 companies have listed on the Indian exchanges raising a total of USD7.2 billion1, a figure which has been surpassed in India only twice before in the last 12 years on an annual basis. In our Monthly Manager Views in April 2021, we spoke about the initial public offering (IPO) rush that we had begun seeing in India early this year.
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Corporate India’s resilience has been severely tested over the past decade. Since 2010, there has been a long, drawn-out downturn, caused by a series of corruption and scams, a banking and financial crisis, and now a devastating health pandemic.
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At a team discussion last month to track management and board changes across our investment universe, a notification on the stock exchanges piqued our interest. Mr Aditya Puri, who had only recently retired as the CEO of HDFC Bank, had joined the board of a small, unlisted pharmaceutical company, Stelis Biopharma.
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We had entered the meeting with a leading air-conditioner company in our portfolio worried about the risks to its growth and profitability, as the second wave of Covid-19 affected consumer demand and raw material costs rose sharply.
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In the first three months of this year, 17 new companies have listed on the mainboard exchanges in India, more than in all of 2019 or 2020*. High levels of retail investor participation and continuing inflows for domestic mutual funds have meant that these new issuances have been lapped up by eager investors.
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Every company we speak to these days tells us about the cost pressure that they are facing, emanating from rising global commodity prices. Domestic steel prices have risen by 35% y/y, copper by over 50% y/y and palm oil by over 60% y/y through February 2021. Indian corporates are being forced to reckon with sharp increases in input costs for the first time in almost a decade.
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