Discerning value amid China’s macro noise

After China reopened at the end of 2022, the market’s optimism soon faded and turned into disappointment. But despite the various macro concerns, the picture is more mixed from our perspective. Some segments posted decent recoveries which were often overlooked amid the pessimism.

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After China reopened at the end of 2022, the market’s optimism soon faded and turned into disappointment. But despite the various macro concerns, the picture is more mixed from our perspective. Some segments posted decent recoveries which were often overlooked amid the pessimism.
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  • 8 mins
We often hear this comment from prospective clients who are considering an investment in the FSSA Indian Subcontinent strategy, but are not yet convinced that a dedicated allocation would indeed be worth it. Call us biased, but we have been arguing in favour of a standalone investment in India for many years.
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The year 2023 turned out to be fairly pedestrian in terms of emerging markets’ performance. The asset class was weighed down by China, which recorded its third consecutive year of negative returns.
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Markets will always do their best to push us to act in a short-term and emotional manner, particularly at times when events become somewhat extreme. These days all of us, market participants or not, seem almost entirely focused on uncertainty rather than promise. This is why having a strong philosophy and process is crucial.
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In our team, mistakes are teachable moments to be shared and learnt from. Thankfully, for us and our clients, in our history of investing in India we have managed to avoid the big ones.
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As investors focused on quality, one can easily “fall in love” with an investment and be too forgiving in certain situations, potentially missing important warning signs or sell signals. One question that we frequently get relates to a common behavioural bias for quality investors: how do we balance admiration for a company without becoming too complacent?
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In response to the recent client interest around China’s market and the challenging performance year-to-date, we had a conversation with Martin Lau, managing partner and lead portfolio manager for the FSSA Asian Equity Plus and FSSA China Growth strategies.
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In our last update, we touched on the idea of high-quality companies hiding in small market capitalisations in ASEAN . This, in our view, is due to years of declining foreign-investor interest in the region. These companies are usually not covered in great detail or indeed at all by sell-side research analysts.
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After Chinese stocks rallied upon the abrupt end to pandemic lockdowns in late 2022, pessimism has taken hold of the markets again. This time, concerns include the uneven post-Covid recovery, the lack of stimulus and weak external demand.
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One of the true competitive advantages we believe we have at FSSA is a genuine long-term investment horizon. For us, investing is not about trying to predict which stocks will rise or fall next month or quarter; rather, it is a non-speculative activity aimed at participating in the long-term value creation we believe the best companies can generate.
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