Remaining optimistic on emerging markets

The year 2023 turned out to be fairly pedestrian in terms of emerging markets’ performance. The asset class was weighed down by China, which recorded its third consecutive year of negative returns.

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The year 2023 turned out to be fairly pedestrian in terms of emerging markets’ performance. The asset class was weighed down by China, which recorded its third consecutive year of negative returns.
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  • 8 mins
Markets will always do their best to push us to act in a short-term and emotional manner, particularly at times when events become somewhat extreme. These days all of us, market participants or not, seem almost entirely focused on uncertainty rather than promise. This is why having a strong philosophy and process is crucial.
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As investors focused on quality, one can easily “fall in love” with an investment and be too forgiving in certain situations, potentially missing important warning signs or sell signals. One question that we frequently get relates to a common behavioural bias for quality investors: how do we balance admiration for a company without becoming too complacent?
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In response to the recent client interest around China’s stock market and the challenging performance year-to-date, we had a conversation with Martin Lau, managing partner and lead portfolio manager to a number of Asia Pacific and Greater China equity strategies.
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In the FSSA GEM Focus strategy we own high-quality businesses which have competitive advantages such as strong brands, distribution advantages, cost leadership, or simply providing a service/product that customers cannot live without. Historically, this has given them pricing power and the ability to preserve margins despite adverse headwinds.
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One of the true competitive advantages we believe we have at FSSA is a genuine long-term investment horizon. For us, investing is not about trying to predict which stocks will rise or fall next month or quarter; rather, it is a non-speculative activity aimed at participating in the long-term value creation we believe the best companies can generate.
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Looking back (though it’s not like we didn’t already know), it is clear that we have been living in an increasingly distorted world. Financially, for the last decade, it has been about interest rates falling to (and staying at) zero in a world of general money printing.
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Investment management is an industry where in the short run there is usually little relationship between process and outcome. In the long run, however, the link is very strong.
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As long-term, bottom-up investors, our starting point for finding suitable investments is to seek out companies that benefit from structural tailwinds and have clearly-defined competitive advantages.
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