Thinking about risk in Emerging Markets

Albert Einstein famously said, “Not everything that can be counted counts and not everything that counts can be counted.” This holds true in many situations, but we think it is especially true when it comes to risk management.

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Latest insights

Many people seem to think that money management is about predicting the future. But even with the gift of perfect foresight, the subsequent market reaction to news is often far from obvious.
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As Asian countries become richer, they have been transitioning towards consumption-based economies, translating higher per capita income into increased spending across goods and services.
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As the world continues to lurch from Covid-surges to reflexive and localised lock-downs, everybody is now looking through to a mythical status quo ante bellum – the before-Covid-times, when the world was just hunky-dory.
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Though Covid hasn’t yet finished with us, the markets have finished with Covid. In real life, there is still plenty of misery to go around, but in our opinion things have seldom been better for investors.
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As many economies have bounced back from the worst of the pandemic, concerns about central banks, the rate of money-printing and inflation have returned. Markets have responded to the arrival of better times by selling off bonds and bond-like equities.
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In our last client update, written through the depths of Covid-despair, we observed that real life and the world of markets are seldom so intimately entwined. With markets swinging violently to the downside on a riptide of fear, it was clear even then that activity was being driven by short-term anxiety rather than a real evaluation of Asia’s longer-term value-accretion prospects.
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