Asian Growth Update - June 2023

Looking back (though it’s not like we didn’t already know), it is clear that we have been living in an increasingly distorted world. Financially, for the last decade, it has been about interest rates falling to (and staying at) zero in a world of general money printing.

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Last year, we wrote about the bubble we were witnessing in the initial public offerings (IPOs) in India. Now, we see a different type of bubble forming – in these cases, the business is often a proven one, with a strong track record and high return profiles.
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Over the past decade, India has had its fair share of crises and reforms. Despite all that, India’s structural growth story remains unchanged, and it is now the fifth largest economy in the world. What does the next decade have in store for India?
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That would perhaps be an accurate description of what drove some of my portfolio decisions as a young fund manager, roughly 15 years ago during the global financial crisis (GFC) meltdown.
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After a recent meeting in Mumbai with the top management of Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), we came back with a clear message – M&M’s commitment to its purpose does not mean that it will continue to operate loss-making businesses.
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We have just returned from India – the first investment research trip in India for our entire team in over two years. It was a liberating break from constantly hearing “You’re on mute!” on video calls whilst simultaneously being forced to appreciate your kids’ music lessons in the adjoining room.
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Land, Labour, Capital and Entrepreneurship. These are the well-known “Factors of Production” as defined by classical economists. The Entrepreneur (or Company) is the one that combines these factors to earn a profit.
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50x P/E! 70x P/E! 100x P/E! Valuations that were outrageous just a few years ago are commonly bandied about by most of the investment community these days. But, ask any respected business owner and they would shake their head in disbelief. The difference in perspective is critical.
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