Remaining optimistic on emerging markets

The year 2023 turned out to be fairly pedestrian in terms of emerging markets’ performance. The asset class was weighed down by China, which recorded its third consecutive year of negative returns.

  • 8 mins

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Markets will always do their best to push us to act in a short-term and emotional manner, particularly at times when events become somewhat extreme. These days all of us, market participants or not, seem almost entirely focused on uncertainty rather than promise. This is why having a strong philosophy and process is crucial.
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Looking back (though it’s not like we didn’t already know), it is clear that we have been living in an increasingly distorted world. Financially, for the last decade, it has been about interest rates falling to (and staying at) zero in a world of general money printing.
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Many people seem to think that money management is about predicting the future. But even with the gift of perfect foresight, the subsequent market reaction to news is often far from obvious.
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As Asian countries become richer, they have been transitioning towards consumption-based economies, translating higher per capita income into increased spending across goods and services.
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As the world continues to lurch from Covid-surges to reflexive and localised lock-downs, everybody is now looking through to a mythical status quo ante bellum – the before-Covid-times, when the world was just hunky-dory.
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Though Covid hasn’t yet finished with us, the markets have finished with Covid. In real life, there is still plenty of misery to go around, but in our opinion things have seldom been better for investors.
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